January 23, 2026
RHRC – The Rohingya humanitarian and security crisis significantly deteriorated in January 2026. Rohingya communities on both sides of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border face a convergence of intensified armed conflict, systematic human rights abuses, and a collapsing aid system while the International Court of Justice (ICJ) holds landmark hearing about Rohingya genocide case.
Escalation in Rakhine State Indicates Dark Future
Throughout January 2026, Myanmar’s Rakhine State witnessed a severe uptick in violence. The Arakan Army (AA) now controls most of the region, engaging in fierce clashes with the Myanmar military junta. On January 21, in Kyauktaw Township, a junta airstrike targeted an AA detention facility, killing prisoners of war and visiting family members. Earlier in the month, sustained air raids on Mrauk-U Township resulted in at least 28 civilian fatalities. The UN has warned these attacks on civilian infrastructure may constitute war crimes.
Patterns of Abuse and Coercion on Rohingya Women and Men
Civilian populations are subjected to severe abuses by both armed actors. Human Rights organizations document the use of Rohingya as “human shields” and for forced labor. The Arakan Army has institutionalized repression through a formal conscription decree, the “National Defense Emergency Provision,” which mandates service for men (18-45) and women (18-35). Recruitment drives are coercive; villagers are filmed signing documents under duress to simulate voluntary enlistment. Concurrently, in junta-held areas, Rohingya men face conscription through threats or false promises of citizenship.
Deepening Humanitarian Catastrophe in Northern Rakhine State
A deliberate blockade on northern Rakhine by conflicting parties has triggered a man-made famine. Movement and trade controls have caused the price of staple foods to triple in January 2026 alone. International aid agencies report rapidly rising acute malnutrition rates, especially among children, but their access remains heavily restricted by both the junta and the AA.
Ground Conditions Make Repatriation Uncertain
The political landscape for refugee return has fundamentally shifted. The Arakan Army, as the de facto governing power, has outright rejected the existing Bangladesh-Myanmar junta repatriation framework. The AA demands direct negotiations, creating a tripartite stalemate. Furthermore, the group refuses to recognize the term “Rohingya,” and reports of land seizures in areas like Buthidaung and Maungdaw make safe return currently impossible.
Fresh Crisis in Refugee Camp
In Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, on January 20, a devastating fire in Camp 16 destroyed more than 450 shelters and displaced over 2,000 refugees, overwhelming already strained services. Separately, local authorities issued a precautionary advisory for refugees to remain within camp boundaries during Bangladesh’s upcoming general election period to ensure their safety amid heightened political activity and crowds.
Policy Shifts and Systemic Underfunding
Facing a 30% higher operational cost, Bangladesh’s interim government is reversing course on the Bhasan Char project, halting relocations and planning to move over 30,000 refugees back to the mainland in 2026. This occurs amidst a severe funding crisis: the 2026 Joint Response Plan (requiring $698.4 million) is critically underfunded. Consequences include a shift to less-generous, vulnerability-based food aid and a nearly 60% shortfall in funding for fire-resistant shelters.
Community-Led Resilience Through Sport
Amid the despair, the Rohingya Football League 2025-2026 in the Cox’s Bazar camps, which began its matches on January 14, serves as a critical psychosocial intervention. Organized by the United Council of Rohingya, Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, TIKA and other humanitarian agencies, it engages youth from 16 camps, fostering unity and purpose while offering protection from exploitation and other forms of dangers.
